ע  һ QQ¼
ͻ
ɨؿͻ
ٷ΢
ɨעٷ΢
л
б
鿴: 50863|ظ: 0
ӡ һ һ

[Ѷ] ܿһζʲô? ѧ賿3㣡

  []

ǩ: 6

[LV.2]żI

мԱ

Rank: 3Rank: 3

3027
Ǯ
2383
20
0
עʱ
2019-5-18
תָ¥
1#
2021-2-23 16:12:32 | ֻ | |Ķģʽ

˵ϴѧûɶãѧҲǡˡũ񹤣˼ѧżǧֶDZѧһֵֽǮ

Ҳѱݹ඾ҲԹúܺãôѧʲôã㿴Ǹ˭ûѧֱϷһ׬20򡣡

˸ĶǧҪȫȻţϾѼԵˣһؼë

˵ʵ𣿵ȷʵ

Ҫһ㣺ʡ

һ߼ѧϵۣҴƫSurvivorship biasֻijɸѡĽûʶɸѡḶ́˺˱ɸѡĹؼϢ
ҴƫԵģһʧƫ翴ţijijƴѧҵȥˣ߳ƶͱɴ˵óۣãѧá

ͬһ⣬ûѧҲгɹߣʺܵͣѧҲʧߣͬܵ͡Ըİ֤ձ⣬Ȼʹˡ

ѧIJֵǮѧû濴ô򵥣1õĴѧĸҪ

꣬ÿǧĿȫһܵ¼ȡҲ13%ҡζ100ѧҲͲ15ܹһ

ҲζĺܹһԺУôǾȫ80%ͬˣ߿ˣҵˣֻҪȥôδҲˡ

ҲΪʲô˶ڼͷУԭǽԽԽѧԸ߷ָҲҪõѧУ

бѧ˶ñ̫ˣʵÿ걾¼ȡ40%ңһѧϱơ

01

йһ

ܴҶΪϴѧķҲԽԽֹͣԺУҲԽԽ࣬´ѧԽԽˣȷʵǡ

˿ԽԽ࣬ҵϲ˿ݡ2010ȫ˿ղҪݹÿ1ˣдѧĻ̶ȵֻ893ˡ

½31ʡֱϽк۾˵˿УдѧָרϣĻ̶ȵ˿Ϊ119636790ˡ

ȫӵдרѧˣֻռȫ˿ڵ10%йӵбѧˣ10滹1

02
õѧȡõ

꣬йһؼʣ

ϹһߴУĿǰʵ˻仧ƶȡ仧֮ѣܶидǰԽΪ˲űϺ仧ܴ顣ܶĽı͸¶һпʵûкõѧûнһĺˣͨ˸ô죿

Щӵиѧ˲أܶһ߳Ϊ߶˲ţ׷׳̨˸Żߡ人ϾɶɳȳУ̨˲ʿһʱ䡰˲šΪеĹȵ㣬˱˴սˢ͡ ͡ӣΪˡͨ

֣ݣƱҵڰÿÿ1000Ԫı׼ÿ2Ԫٱ人ʵѧ仧Уҵضɴۡгɳ仧ɳıƱҵÿ귢6000Ԫⷿ

Ͼ40 ±ֱ仧شѧǧԪ߲˲׷޹

ٱ人ʵѧ仧Уҵضɴۡ

гɶͨȫƴѧƼѧ˲ţƾҵ֤仧

бѧһ߳еʱ

һ߳ÿõнʸߣиƵҽơҵϵӵиߵĹҵˮƽ

Щ仧ߣǻڶ֪ʶغ˲ŵϿɡһõѧһ߳еʱѧǡ˲š֤

03
õѧʼƽ̨

ѧְשҵƸʱһżѧ

Ƹȥһҹ˾Ҫ֮һҪѧǴһǶ˾ƸΪʲôҪ󱾿ѧ

ȣӦϰصǽ⣬ѧֻһο׼

Σ˾֮趨һЩɸѡ磺ơӢ1~3깤飬Ϊһɱܸߵ顣

󣬴ӸϿ˵ѧûֱӵĹרơбҵţ˴ڣǴȺϿУҵУ˲ŵıߣDzʵԣӱƻУҵɸѡȴרɸѡĺԱʸ

ٸӣ

һ˾Ҫ2ˡÿ1000ר1˷Ϲ˾Ҫÿ5001˷Ϲ˾Ҫÿ100У1˷Ϲ˾Ҫ

ɸѡרƣHRҪ2000ɸѡDZƣҪ1000ɸѡУҪ200⡣

˾һҵҪɱЧʡǹ˾HRҲڴУļɸѡʵˣĹҲʡ˾Ӫɱ

֮趨Ϊǽʡ˾ijɱӹЧʡ

ĿǰгƸ򣬷룺ԼDZѧоѧǻDzǻ㣿

04
õѧ״̬

湫˾ƸҲᵽˣ˾ƸԱѧǵҪءDz˵ѧҪҪӦҪ֪ûбѧչʾĻᶼûС

Ҳᷴ˵ijijϰккլdzбҵ

ÿһɹIJݸ󣬶ǧǧʧܵIJݸα֤ԼǸ˶أγе˵ĺأ

ë˵ûиˣκһ·Щ͵ԣѵˣͮǧЩǣ׷ѡ˲μӸ߿Щ۵ǣѡҲȥϴѧ

ѧζŸߵ۽˼άʽڽܹ֮׷ƷʵԵ˼⣬滮úͼ˹ͨķʽҲӿѧ

ЩεIJƸһ

05
õѧиѡȨ

˱·ǧѡԼĻѡԼĵ·׷Լijɹг̡ӲվƱ

ѡԼѧҲǷݣδ㣬ֿܡ

ӵбѧżѡ죬л߳ѧ

ģҲԲƵѡָĹ㻹ԿԱְҵʸ֤飬μ˾ԡ

ѧһЩѡӵиܣЩ޼۵ġ

ʵϣ˵Ļԣ ǡʲôѧҪ

Ҫڶݶ޵ĻԣҪŽͶijɹŬŬŬḻԼѧʶһõĴѧԼѧףŲഺijˮȥ֮󣬷ԼһС

޼¼
޸̬,¼/ע ܵ
CλԷ 2021-3-13 07:36 +1
QQѺȺQQѺȺ QQռQQռ Ѷ΢Ѷ΢ ѶѶ
ղղ ΢ŷ

룬֪ӭע̳΢Źںš

ظ

ʹõ ٱ

б

ֹ

ٻظ ض б